Blog


I maintain a blog - Rangvid's Blog. Here are recent posts:


Don’t rely (too much) on implied forward rates when predicting future interest rates. June 2024.


Money and inflation. May 2024.


Do monetary policy regimes matter? Evidence from the Nordics. April 2024.


A solution to Larry Fink's pension problem can be found in Denmark. April 2024.


Monetary policy in the 1970s and today. April 2024


Magnificent 7. Or is it Magnificent 2? March 2024.


The expensive stock market. March 2024.


The disappearance of inflation: were rate hikes necessary? February 2024.


Five lessons from 2023. December 2023.


The future of r*. December 2023.


Have interest rates risen fundamentally? November 2023


When will there be no more excess savings left? October 2023.


Why no recession (yet)? October 2023.


A few stocks drive the stock market: Dot.com vs. today vs. the last 100 years. September 2023.


7 or 493 stocks: What matters for the S&P 500? August 2023.


Inflation, unemployment and the Phillips curve: The 1970s vs. today. August 2023.


US core inflation: 2 percent or 5 percent? August 2023. John Cochrane has a great follow-up post here. Also covered by FAZ and Børsen.


A 'neat little trick' saves the Fed from bankruptcy, but someone still has to pay. June 2023.


The Fed is bankrupt, but it is unrealised. May 2023.


150 years of inflation. April 2023.


Bank-turmoil considerations. March 2023.


What was the cost of the pandemic? March 2023.


Oil prices and inflation expectations. February 2023.


Did energy prices cause this inflation surge? February 2023.


Striking similarities (and differences) between inflation today and in the 1970s. January 2023. Financial Times had a great follow-up article.


Recession in 2023? December 2022.


Real consequences of rising mortgage rates and falling stock prices. December 2022.


Some good news: Expect higher returns. November 2022.


Where is the liquidity? October 2022.


Threats to financial stability. October 2022.


Three economists’ (Cochrane’s, Reis’, and my own) explanations why inflation is so high. September 2022.


Why is inflation so high? August 2022.


A historical ECB meeting. Pros and cons of the TPI. July 2022.


Euro area dichotomy. July 2022.


Expected inflation in the euro area. June 2022.


Is euro area monetary policy tight or loose? June 2022


Lessons from the 1970s and monetary policy today. May 2022


Lessons from the 1970: Germany vs. U.S. April 2022.


Yield spreads and recessions. April 2022.


ECB's additional dilemma. March 2022.


Yield, growth, and valuation. February 2022.

 

Three unusually good years in markets. Why and will it continue? January 2022.


ECB’s dilemma: Choosing between the devil (raise rates) and the deep blue sea (don’t raise rates). December 2021. Covered by Reuters.


Best in test: And the best stock return predictor is…….. end-of-the-year consumption growth. October 2021


Frothy stock and housing markets: How worried should we be? October 2021


Is 1970s-like inflation coming back? August 2021


It’s official: This was the shortest recession on record. July 2021


Summer reading: Probabilities of tail-events. July 2021


From Main St. to Wall St.: Expected returns. June 2021


From Main St. to Wall St.: The business cycle. May 2021


Expected returns, spring 2021 forecasts. May 2021


From Main St. to Wall St.: The long run. April 2021


From Main Street to Wall Street. March 2021


Yields and inflation expectations. March 2021


The global cost of the crisis. February 2021


The cost of the second wave. January 2021


2020. December 2020


The cost of this crisis


VV or W: When did (or does) this recession end?


If Biden wins


Expected returns, autumn 2020 updates


Quantitative Easing (QE) and biases in research


The Fed’s “Whatever it takes” moment. Or, how the Fed saved equity and credit markets


The weird stock market. Part II: Potential explanations


The weird stock market. Part I: Facts and wrong explanations


Expected returns


How stable is the Nordic financial sector?


Interventions that pay off. And, interventions that do not


The price of a lockdown


Zero-probability events that happened


Is the stock market too optimistic? Or, is the market always right?


Italy vs. Greece


The stock market and more horrifying figures


A 121 x sigma event


V, U, W, or L? The stock market votes “V”.


Horrifying figures


Eurozone in trouble again, but this time with a new twist